Sunday, November 11, 2007

Predicting the unpredictable

One thing about predicting the unpredictable: It's tough!

Just like today when I played a board game with a bunch of friends. I thought I've planned my moves perfectly, but one factor blocked my moves to progress, which was the behaviour of the other player that didn't go with the logic that I've had in mind. I asked her in the end of the game. She said some of the moves she made were random. I think she was tired and wanted to take a rest.

If randomness is unpredictable, how should we cope with that? Shall we just take a chance and live with it? or shall our actions based on what's the most beneficial thing for us and forget about how the other players will think?

An individual will take an action which is best for him. That's Adam Smith.

While I was thinking about John Nash. An individual will take an action which is best for him, and for the group.

Clearly, in the game that I had and to the other player that I was talking about in the paragraph above, Nash's theory didn't work. So, Nash has to consider this in his theory:
"A person will think about what's the best for himself, and for the group. Provided that he understands and has resources to think about what is the best for the group."

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